Super El Niño will redraw global catastrophe risk

El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation because of unfavorable upper-level winds over the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and parts of the Atlantic. In its July 2026 outlook, NOAA called for a below-average season of 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, with a 55% chance of coming in below average; Colorado State University’s own July update was even lower, forecasting just 9 storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane.